Despite opportunities for broad consensus, Tennessee鈥檚 long history of pragmatic politics could be affected by rising polarization along party lines, according to the most recent statewide .
Poll directors , Gertrude Conaway 杏吧原创 Professor of Political Science, and , Abby and Jon Winkelried Professor of Political Science, say these findings indicate that the state鈥檚 leaders have a choice to make between further strengthening their bases or pursuing a bipartisan agenda.
鈥淲hat is happening nationally in terms of polarization is beginning to infiltrate state politics,鈥� Geer said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e at a crossroads鈥攇oing forward, our state leaders can choose to address issues that divide, or issues that unite.鈥�
Signs of retreat from the middle
Like his predecessor, Bill Haslam, Gov. Bill Lee is the most popular politician in the state according to the poll, enjoying a comfortable 61 percent approval rating. Sen. Lamar Alexander stands at 46 percent, while Sen. Marsha Blackburn鈥檚 rating is 45 percent. Support for President Donald Trump holds steady at 54 percent. Tennesseans remain unhappy with Congress, giving it just a 26 percent approval rating, though they feel more optimistic about the state legislature, rating it at 52 percent.
These numbers largely align with the previous year鈥檚 trends.
However, new patterns are emerging among the supporters of Tennessee鈥檚 newly elected officials. At 61 percent, Lee is equally as popular as his predecessor. 鈥淏ut their support base is different.鈥� Geer said. 鈥淟ee鈥檚 support draws less from Democrats and independents and more from Republicans. This is significant and underscores what could be increasing polarization in the state.鈥�
This trend is even more pronounced among the state鈥檚 senators. Support for Sen. Lamar Alexander is essentially bipartisan, according to the poll, while support for incoming Sen. Marsha Blackburn is concentrated almost entirely among Republicans.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing the beginnings of a potential fracture in terms of what direction the state wants to go,鈥� said Clinton. 鈥淥n one hand, our political leaders could go all in for issues that matter to the Republican base, but which may not be reflective of the views of independents and Democrats. Or they can maintain a more consensus-based approach to policies that voters support broadly.鈥�
Strong bipartisan support for many issues
Despite the possibility of a drift away from consensus policymaking, the poll found Tennesseans unified across several issues:
Drug and alcohol addiction: 69 percent of voters rate it a 鈥渂ig problem.鈥�
Voting access: 66 percent support 鈥渕otor-voter鈥� policies that automatically register Tennesseans to vote when they get driver鈥檚 licenses or interact with other state agencies. Meanwhile, 74 percent would support the restoration of voting rights for Tennesseans with certain felony convictions upon the completion of their sentences.
Health care: Tennesseans strongly support policies related to children鈥檚 health鈥�72 percent support the recent 鈥淜atie Beckett鈥� law that permits families of severely disabled children to receive Medicaid funding regardless of income level. (By comparison, 60 percent support expanding Medicaid to include more low-income adults.) And 87 percent of voters favor mandatory vaccination for healthy children seeking to attend public schools.
Immigration: Tennesseans strongly favor policies that preserve the rights of illegal immigrants to stay and rectify their status鈥�54 percent say they should be allowed to apply for citizenship, while another 20 percent favor a guest worker program. Furthermore, 62 percent of Tennesseans say efforts to reduce illegal immigration should target employers, not immigrants.
Poll results showed a strong disconnect, however, in Tennesseans鈥� understanding of how many illegal immigrants reside in the state: While the current estimate is between 120,000 and 140,000, nearly a quarter thought there were more than a million.
House Speaker Glen Casada: Poll results also showed consensus around Casada鈥檚 future鈥�63 percent of voters, across all party lines, say he should resign following the revelation of sexually explicit text messages he exchanged with his chief of staff. However, Geer said, that condemnation does not appear to have impacted perceptions of Gov. Lee or the state legislature.
Opportunities for division emerging
“The question is: How hard do you push on those types of issues versus other bipartisan issues like opioids? And I don鈥檛 think we know yet. Those fracture lines are there, and it鈥檚 going to come down to the decisions our elected leaders make.”
Two bills in the last legislative session highlight the choices the Republican supermajority have to make about how they want to govern, the researchers said.
Though the state legislature recently passed a bill permitting the use of school vouchers in Davidson and Shelby counties, just 40 percent of Tennesseans favor the measure. And while the 鈥渉eartbeat bill鈥� banning abortions after the detection of fetal cardiac activity failed this session, it would not have found majority support among voters anyway鈥攋ust 41 percent support such a measure.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 the kind of issue that鈥檚 supported by a majority of Republicans, but almost no one in any other group. So the question is: How hard do you push on those types of issues versus other bipartisan issues like opioids?鈥� Clinton said. 鈥淎nd I don鈥檛 think we know yet. Those fracture lines are there, and it鈥檚 going to come down to the decisions our elected leaders make.鈥�
The poll of 1,000 demographically representative Tennessee voters was conducted May 9-23 via landline and cell phones, and covered a variety of state and national issues. The margin of error is 卤3.8 percent and full results and methodology may be found at .
About the 杏吧原创 Poll
The 杏吧原创 Poll is supported by the聽聽at 杏吧原创. The statewide poll is typically conducted just before the start of each legislative session and at the end of each session, in part to determine how closely the results of the session align with voters鈥� expectations and priorities. CSDI also conducts a yearly Nashville poll, as well as additional special polls. In 2015, the 杏吧原创 Poll became a charter member of the聽.