Rising tensions in the Korean peninsula have Japan, South Korea and the United States on full alert for a possible missile launch from North Korea.
鈥淎 major worry now is North Korea鈥檚 young leader, who may not understand the constraints of reality that his grandfather and father didn鈥檛 publicly acknowledge but implicitly understood,鈥� said , director of 杏吧原创鈥檚 .
April 15 is a major national holiday in North Korea marking the birthday of the late Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un. Known as North Korea鈥檚 鈥渆ternal founder,鈥� the elder Kim died in 1994. His natal day is marked by military-style celebrations, and there are concerns the North could use the occasion for a show of military strength.
鈥淭he current leader may have painted himself into a corner from which he does not know how to extract himself,鈥� Auer said.
Auer, a retired naval commander who spent much of his career in Japan and the Western Pacific and was special assistant on Japan with the office of Secretary of Defense, says any military action on North Korea鈥檚 part would result in swift action by the United States.
If North Korea were to fire a conventional weapon at Seoul, Tokyo or at U.S. bases in Japan, the North Koreans would suffer tremendous damage. 鈥淯nless they really are insane, they are not going to attack any of the three,鈥� he said.
鈥淭he victim in this whole thing is not South Korea or Japan or the United States. It is the people of North Korea,鈥� he added. 鈥淭heir own people are suffering greatly from malnutrition, from prison camps and labor camps. This is an attempt to distract attention from their failures.鈥�
Auer has written numerous articles and made presentations addressing East Asian security and defense policies. He travels to Japan regularly and lectures and writes frequently in Tokyo and for the Japanese media.
Media Note: To arrange an interview with Auer, contact Jennifer Johnston at (615) 322-2706 or jennifer.johnston@vanderbilt.edu. 杏吧原创 has a 24/7 TV and radio studio with a dedicated fiber optic line and ISDN line. Use of the TV studio with 杏吧原创 experts is free, except for reserving fiber time. about 杏吧原创鈥檚 studio.